The U.S. Dollar soared towards a basket of currencies final week taking the index to its highest degree since January 2. The index can also be buying and selling larger for the yr, recovering from a bearish outlook generated by current dovish U.S. Federal Reserve coverage remarks. The Fed continues to be dovish, however so are all the main central banks. This neutralized the Fed remarks and turned the greenback right into a extra fascinating funding. Safe-haven shopping for because of the shedding of upper danger belongings additionally underpinned the dollar.
For the week, March U.S. Dollar Index futures settled at 96.416, up 1.116 or +1.17%.
Dollar Supported Early by Bullish U.S. Economic Data
Buyers got here in early final week to help the U.S. Dollar. The catalyst behind the transfer was the earlier Friday’s strong U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and stronger-than-expected ISM PMI manufacturing report. This news drove up U.S. Treasury yields as a result of it raised considerations that maybe the Fed had it mistaken, and that the U.S. financial system was truly robust sufficient to face up to at the least one rate of interest hike in 2019.
New Support for Dollar Driven by Series of Events
A collection of occasions all through the week helped drive the greenback even larger, however for various causes. This time, it wasn’t greater yields driving the dollar larger, however somewhat safe-haven shopping for associated to rising considerations over the weakening international financial system and renewed considerations over U.S.-China relations which drove down urge for food for larger danger belongings.
The key occasions driving the greenback greater have been a bearish outlook for the Euro Zone financial system, uncertainty over U.S.-China commerce relations and the potential of a price minimize by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
European Commission Lowers Outlook for Euro Zone Economy
The European Commission sharply reduce its forecasts for Euro Zone financial progress this yr and subsequent on expectations the bloc’s largest nations can be held again by international grade tensions and home challenges. The Commission stated Euro Zone progress will sluggish to 1.three % this yr from 1.9 % in 2018, earlier than rebounding in 2020 to 1.6 %.
This news drove the Euro sharply decrease, driving up the U.S. Dollar Index. The Euro has the best affect over the index as a result of it carries a weight of about 58 %.
Negative News About U.S.-China Trade Relations Drives Down Appetite for Risky Assets
Negative feedback about U.S.-China commerce relations drove U.S. stock indexes decrease final week, driving buyers into the security of the U.S. Dollar.
The main stock indexes topped out and the promoting started after White House financial advisor Larry Kudlow stated that China and the U.S. have been nonetheless distant on putting a commerce deal. Later within the session, stocks weakened additional after CNBC reported that the Trump-Xi assembly earlier than the March 2 deadline was “highly unlikely.”
Reserve Bank of Australia Spikes U.S. Dollar Higher
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might have telegraphed a price minimize for later within the yr when it made a considerable downward revision to its progress forecasts in its quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP). This drove the Australian Dollar sharply decrease, making the U.S. Dollar a extra engaging funding, because it led to a widening of the unfold between U.S. Government bonds and Australian Government bonds.
Dollar’s Outlook is Mixed
The U.S. Dollar Index is more likely to proceed to be supported by safe-haven shopping for pushed by decrease demand for dangerous belongings. This transfer is more likely to proceed if stocks proceed to weaken. Furthermore, any indicators of a strengthening U.S. financial system shall be supportive for the dollar.
The U.S. Dollar Index might weaken if oversold circumstances present help for the main currencies within the index particularly the Euro. Additionally, renewed optimism over U.S.-China commerce relations might encourage merchants to carry their greenback hedges, placing additional strain on the dollar.
This article was initially posted on FX Empire